Whether you’re doing some extra holiday baking or revamping your protein goals, your planning may be at risk, thanks to the rising price of eggs in America. Last year, egg prices were at an all-time high with a record 70 percent increase from the previous year—but now, the industry is set to hit a new high. While there’s rarely a single cause behind price increases, this time, experts are pointing toward one known contributing factor for shortages and sky-high prices: Bird flu—specifically, the recent bird flu outbreak.

But before you give up your favorite eggs altogether, here’s what you need to know before you take your next trip to the grocery store.

How is bird flu impacting costs?

According to a press release from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), more than 35 million egg-laying hens have been lost because of this bird flu outbreak, impacting farms across 12 states. Over 100 million birds have been impacted overall in almost every state (with only Louisiana not reporting any illnesses, currently), according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). This outbreak has also been linked to raw milk, with the USDA ordering all raw milk be tested for the virus.

Post Holdings, a food product company that oversees multiple smaller companies, reported that over 12 percent of their egg supply would be impacted in December and beyond, thanks to the current bird flu outbreak that’s sweeping farms across the country. The company had previously reported losses in May from farms in Iowa and Minnesota at another 14 percent.

One Post Holdings subsidiary company, Michael Foods, reported that 4.5 million birds have died this year as a result of bird flu, causing a major impact to their egg offerings. For context, Post Holdings reported in their 2023 earnings report that eggs and egg products accounted for over one third of all sales.

Experts report that newer strains of bird flu are different, as they are also affecting cage-free and organic egg sources, when previously it was only affecting non-organic, large-scale conventional egg operations. In California alone, where law requires any shelled egg sold to be raised in a cage-free environment, egg prices have doubled due to the large-scale bird flu outbreak, with over 200 cage-free farms supplying eggs across the country. Note: 40 percent of all eggs sold in the U.S. are cage-free.

How much will egg prices increase?

In November 2024, egg prices had already risen to an average of $3.64 a dozen (for Grade A large eggs) according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was a 30 percent increase from October alone. Until egg-laying populations can recover, there’s a chance these prices will continue to increase, as an egg shortage will trigger a larger supply and demand curve.

Should we be worried about bird flu in eggs?

No, you shouldn’t be worried about bird flu in eggs. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), along with the USDA, did a risk assessment in 2010 to determine if HPAI, or bird flu, could be transmitted from eggs to people, and determined the risk was low. If bacteria and viruses *are* present on eggs, the eggs available to you at the grocery store have been sanitized and correctly stored at refrigeration temps (about 40°F, according to the USDA).

Additionally, Bryan Quoc Le, PhD, a food scientist and food science consultant, previously told Well+Good that there’s no need to wash our eggs at home, as “they use sterilizing agents to wash the eggs, which isn’t something that you’re normally going to do at home. It doesn’t hurt to wash them, but it doesn’t help either,” he said. That sterile wash removes a protective outer layer that allows eggs to sit at room temperature without spoiling, but that coating also harbors a lot of bacteria, like salmonella, so it’s better that it’s removed before it hits the shelves.

Essentially, through food safety practices, the chances of you getting bird flu through eggs you bought on your weekly shopping trip is very low.

What to do now

There’s not much you can do outside of switching your regular store-bought eggs for eggs from your local farm source, if possible. Unfortunately, due to higher demand because of the holidays, and bird flu, eggs are just going to be a little bit more expensive than normal. There are even some reports that egg costs may start to stabilize early next year as farms recover and re-populate their egg-laying hens.

If you don’t feel like shelling out for the additional cost, there are so many excellent egg substitutes—chia seeds and tofu are my favorites—that can help you from breakfast time, to holiday baking and beyond. Just make sure to double check to make sure whatever substitute you pick is compatible in texture and flavor with the dish (i.e. applesauce would be a great egg substitute in cakes and loaves, but not great for a quiche).